Buffer
Reserves, redundancy, shelter, time, and slack.
CASTALIA INSTITUTE · RESEARCH PREVIEW 01
What is alive enough
to receive the shock?
Eucalypso measures the capacities that buffer, interpret, repair, and transform a civilization under pressure. It does not subtract danger from the ledger.
CAPACITY FIELD
—
no composite published
Source-backed inputs are being harmonized. A score appears only when its definition, provenance, geography, period, and uncertainty are available.
Global scope · data status: building
SCENARIOAPOCALYPSO / PRESSUREEUCALYPSO / CAPACITYFIELD
destructive pressure constructive capacity No fictional values: unavailable cells remain unavailable until a source extract is documented.
Response
The ability to interpret a shock and act while it is happening.
Recovery
The ability to restore health, function, trust, and material systems.
Transformation
The ability to build better rather than merely restore the failed.
03 / EDUCATION + CYBORG COGNITION
The human–machine floor.
AI can raise assisted performance while unaided competence falls. We track both, but publish no composite until the task, population, tool access, and failure condition are specified.
GLOBAL / SOURCE REGISTRY
Unaided human baselinepending
AI-assisted capabilitypending
Cyborg resiliencepending
augmentation surplusnot computeddependency gapnot computed
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A population is not more capable simply because its tools are more capable. The question is what remains when the tool is gone.
Read the measurement contract ↘04 / METHOD
A dual ledger, not a net score.
Apocalypso measures hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Eucalypso measures buffer, response, recovery, and transformation.
No Eucalypso composite is published yet. Every future value must retain its definition, geography, time window, source, confidence, missingness, and transformation rule. Pressure and capacity are not interchangeable and must not be visually collapsed into a single verdict.
Initial source families: WHO Universal Health Coverage data; UNESCO Institute for Statistics / Global Education Monitoring data; UNDRR Sendai Framework Monitor. AI-assisted capability remains a research question, not a population statistic.
Open the pressure observatory ↗